Decision fragility, made visible

Know what would change your mind.

A weighted score tells you who leads. Forklight goes further: it simulates uncertainty, maps each option’s shape, and finds the smallest assumption that could flip the call.

decision_tree.maplive model

Decision on the table

What matters

Rename + weight

How uncertain are your scores?±12

KnownSpeculative

Score the paths

0 weak — 100 strong

Most resilient path

Win rate

Expected score

Decision gap

Win rate across 2,000 futures

radar.compare / option shapes

monte_carlo.distribution / 2,000 futures

decompose.shape / weighted contribution

Fragility lens / smallest flip

Likely score range / P10—P90

Commit the reasoning, not just the answer.

Save a private snapshot in this browser so you can revisit what you believed.